Democrats Projected to Win Both Chambers: What the 2026 Midterms Could Mean for Gun Laws

Results as of 4:04 a.m. CT, Wed., Nov. 4, 2026. Uncalled races are noted. Race calls are from the NBC News and Fox News decision desks; we don't project winners ourselves.

NBC News and Fox News project Democrats will hold majorities in both the House and the Senate in January, based on races they had called as of 4:04 a.m. CT Nov. 4. No state has certified results. The Associated Press has also reported Democrats won both chambers (AP); we have not independently verified AP's race-by-race calls.

The numbers#

• Senate: 54 Democrats (including two independents who caucus with them) and 44 Republicans, with Alaska and Mississippi still uncalled. Going in it was 53 R, 45 D and 2 I.
• House: 232 Democrats and 144 Republicans in called races, with 59 races still uncalled. Going in it was 218 R, 214 D and 1 I, with 2 vacancies.
• Seats changing hands (projected by NBC/Fox, not certified): 7 Senate seats and 28 House seats moved to Democrats.
• Incumbents defeated: 4 senators (Jon Husted, Roger Marshall, Susan Collins and Darline Graham, appointed in July 2026) and 23 House members lost their general elections, as projected by NBC News and Fox News as of 4:04 a.m. CT; no state has certified results.

• Governors: Democrats won five governorships previously held by Republicans: Georgia, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio and Texas (projected by NBC News and Fox News as of 5:41 a.m. CT; no state has certified results). None moved the other way, and Alaska and Kansas are uncalled. According to Ballotpedia's preliminary analysis, Democrats gained control of at least five state legislative chambers, pending uncalled races and certification, and state legislatures write state gun laws.

Why it matters for gun owners#

Committee gavels change hands. Democrats will chair Senate Judiciary, Senate Finance, House Judiciary and House Ways and Means, the committees that handle concealed-carry reciprocity, the Hearing Protection Act, the SHORT Act and the NFA. Who holds those gavels isn't decided yet.

Bill sponsors are leaving. Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS), the SHORT Act's Senate sponsor, lost to Adam Hamilton (D), as projected by NBC News and Fox News as of 4:04 a.m. CT; no state has certified results. Rep. Richard Hudson (R-NC), sponsor of H.R. 38, lost to Richard Ojeda (D) in NC-9, as projected by NBC News as of 4:04 a.m. CT (Fox had not called the race).

Time is short for this Congress. H.R. 2189 (less-than-lethal devices) and H.R. 1041 (Veterans 2nd Amendment Protection Act) passed the House and are pending in the Senate. Bills not enacted before the 119th Congress ends (no later than noon Jan. 3, 2027) expire and would have to be reintroduced in the 120th Congress. As of Nov. 4 congress.gov shows no Senate action on either since they arrived; most bills still need 60 votes to end debate (senate.gov).

The NFA tax stays at $0. The $0 tax on suppressors, SBRs, SBSs and AOWs has been law since Jan. 1, 2026, under P.L. 119-21, §70436, amending 26 U.S.C. 5811 (law.cornell.edu); the $200 tax still applies to machine guns and destructive devices (CRS), and the election doesn't change that. Whether the new Congress revisits it is an open question. No incoming leader has said.

Who's arriving. Of 95 newcomers in called races, 60 hold an NRA-PVF F grade and 28 hold an A-range grade. 44 were endorsed by Giffords, Everytown or Brady PAC. Those are pre-election ratings, not votes.

What we're watching#

• Whether the Senate moves H.R. 2189 or H.R. 1041 in the lame duck.
• Who chairs the Judiciary and tax committees.
• Whether HPA, SHORT or reciprocity bills get reintroduced, and whether background-check bills like 2021's H.R. 8 come back.

Read the full breakdown, including every defeated incumbent, every newcomer's firearms record and a state-by-state list: The 120th Congress: What the 2026 Midterms Mean for Firearms Policy

Methodology and sources#

• Race calls come from the NBC News Decision Desk and the Fox News Decision Desk. A race counts as decided only when a desk projects it and no desk disagrees. Chamber control per AP and NPR.
• Uncalled as of 4:04 a.m. CT: Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi, plus 59 House races, listed in the full article.
• Firearms records come from NRA-PVF grades; GOA, Giffords, Everytown and Brady PAC endorsements; and House and Senate roll-call votes. We never infer a position from party.
• Bill status comes from congress.gov. This is general information, not legal advice. Firearms Almanac doesn't endorse candidates or parties.